Forecasted US economic growth for the rest of this year and next was cut again for a third month in a row by a panel of about 50 economists.
Thus far, the latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators report released Thursday reflected the weaker outlook for second-half 2010 growth stemmed from lower anticipations for consumer spending, business investment and private construction.
The US GDP grew at a meager 1.6% annual rate in the second quarter, less than half the first quarter's 3.7% rate. And the growth in the current quarter now is expected to be little better than the disappointingly soft advance registered last quarter.
However, the economists' group said that, after the mid-year soft patch, it saw a gradual improving trend setting in with growth slightly surpassing trend rate in the second half of 2011.
Blue Chip defines GDP trend growth at about 2-3/4% a year.
For all of 2010, real GDP now is forecast to increase 2.7% on a year-to-year basis, 0.2 of a percentage point less than a month ago and 0.6 of a point less than predicted in June," the survey said.
Its consensus forecast for real GDP growth in 2011 was cut by 0.3 of a percentage point from a month ago to 2.5%.
It’s also forecasted that the US unemployment rate will end this year at 9.6 percent and fall only to 9 percent by the end of 2011.
Blue Chip also predicts that after averaging 554,000 new housing units in 2009, starts this year will rise to 600,000 and to 760,000 units in 2011.
The economists also anticipate short-term interest rates to remain very low before starting to rise next summer. They also expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate at its current range of zero to 0.25% through mid-2011, finally raising it to 0.75% by the end of 2011.