Online retail sales will return to growth in 2010 and to double-digit growth by 2011, eMarketer Inc. predicts. The eMarketer forecast calls for an increase in e-retail sales to over $189 billion by 2013, which would represent a 9.56% compound annual growth rate from 2009 to 2013.
The firm forecasts U.S. e-retail sales this year will total $131.4 billion, down about 0.7% from $132.3 billion last year, but will grow 7.5% next year to $141.3 billion. The firm projects growth rates of 11.5% in 2011 and 10.0% in 2012, before slipping back to 9.2% in 2013 as e-commerce matures.
The forecast is only slightly different from one eMarketer issued in March. The firm says online retail sales have rebounded after a worse-than-expected first half of the year, and eMarketer now predicts fourth quarter e-retail sales will be 5% higher than last year.
Here are eMarketer’s projections for online sales from 2009 to 2013, with sales in billions followed by percentage change from the prior year: in 2009 sales dropped 0.7% to $131.4; in 2010 e-retail sales are predicted to rise 7.5% to $141.3; in 2011 the rising will continue reaching $157.6 or 11.5%; in 2012 the sales will rise a little slower – only for 10.0% to $173.3; and in 2013 – to $189.3 or 9.2%.
The eMarketer estimates exclude online spending on travel, digital downloads and event tickets.