April 3, 2009 - 2:20am
A report released on Wednesday by The Conference Board, a private research group, confirmed similar white papers previously published by a number of researchers saying the U.S. economy is under the threat of inflation which might result in a second recession next year.
The Fed’s immense spending to boost the U.S. economy is expected to bring its fruits in the last quarter of 2009. But as Bart van Ark, vice president and chief economist of The Conference Board notes in case America experiences too rapid revival from a recession ‘there may be a risk of another recession in 2010.’ The Fed’s cutting interest rates and buying up billions in government debt could have undesired consequences.
"It may fuel expectations for a return to inflation, adding to the uncertainty concerning the pattern and path of economic recovery," he said.
There is a risk of a double-dip" recession, Van Ark noted, similar to 1980 and 1982, as commodity prices rise on the back of a falling dollar and monetary easing. Still, he made a provision that the possibility of such scenario is little as deflation risks are too high while government stimulus spending should stem further economic decline and ease the flow of job losses.
The Fed’s immense spending to boost the U.S. economy is expected to bring its fruits in the last quarter of 2009. But as Bart van Ark, vice president and chief economist of The Conference Board notes in case America experiences too rapid revival from a recession ‘there may be a risk of another recession in 2010.’ The Fed’s cutting interest rates and buying up billions in government debt could have undesired consequences.
"It may fuel expectations for a return to inflation, adding to the uncertainty concerning the pattern and path of economic recovery," he said.
There is a risk of a double-dip" recession, Van Ark noted, similar to 1980 and 1982, as commodity prices rise on the back of a falling dollar and monetary easing. Still, he made a provision that the possibility of such scenario is little as deflation risks are too high while government stimulus spending should stem further economic decline and ease the flow of job losses.